Investment Thesis
ASTI is a development stage thin-film solar company. We believe it is differentiated by three factors: it is likely to be one of the first to successfully commercialize CIGS thin-film technology, it uniquely uses roll-to-roll manufacturing on flexible plastic substrate (not rigid glass panels), and it uses monolithic integration, which is laser patterning and ink printing to interconnect cells into modules. The resulting flexible, light weight laminates can be tailored to customer specifications, which should be particularly well suited for applications in building integrated PV (BIPV) and electronics integrated PV (EIPV). However, at current, limited scale, it is not cost competitive in BIPV. By working through channel partners, such as Norsk Hydro (which owns 30%), it should be able to gain market presence with relatively low expenses. Other partners include: ITOCHU, ICP Solar Technologies, Icopal, and Giscosa Sociedad Limitada. Other risks include: global oversupply of PV products, potential delays in achieving expected production volume, yields and conversion efficiency; failure to achieve customer qualifications and expected field performance; difficulty scaling the process from one-third meter to one meter wide substrate; competition from larger incumbent and many private thin-film PV companies; and potential changes to government subsidies for solar.
ASTI Estimated Revenue Buildup ($MM)
Source: Cowen and Company, company reports
ASTI Condensed P&L Model ($MM)
Source: Cowen and Company, company reports